Holmes Hub

Spot the culprit

If you simply read a Holmes story from the first page, how soon could you name the culprit?

We measured it on the 42 stories in the canon where there is a culprit to find. For each story: where the culprit is first mentioned, under any name or in any disguise, and where he or she is unmasked. Both are counted in words, from 0% (the first word) to 100% (the last).

18.5%the culprit is first mentioned (median)
80%the culprit is unmasked (median)
15 of 42stories name the culprit in the first tenth

In half the stories the culprit is on stage before you are a fifth of the way in. In 25 of 42 the name has fallen within the first quarter; in only 4 does it come after 60%.

Story by story

first mentionedunmasked sort:
  1. The Creeping ManProfessor Presbury himself
  2. The Speckled BandDr Grimesby Roylott
  3. The Valley of FearJohn Douglas himself
  4. The Retired ColourmanJosiah Amberley
  5. Shoscombe Old PlaceSir Robert Norberton
  6. Silver BlazeJohn Straker
  7. The Boscombe Valley MysteryJohn Turner
  8. The Three Garridebs‘Killer’ Evans, as John Garrideb
  9. The Empty HouseColonel Sebastian Moran
  10. The Priory SchoolJames Wilder, and Reuben Hayes
  11. The Devil’s FootMortimer Tregennis
  12. The Solitary CyclistWoodley and Williamson
  13. The Hound of the BaskervillesStapleton
  14. The Lion's ManeCyanea capillata, a jellyfish
  15. The Norwood BuilderJonas Oldacre
  16. The Naval TreatyJoseph Harrison
  17. The Sign of the FourJonathan Small
  18. The Reigate Squiresthe Cunninghams, father and son
  19. The Problem of Thor BridgeMaria Gibson herself
  20. The Red-Headed LeagueJohn Clay, as Vincent Spaulding
  21. A Case of IdentityWindibank, as Hosmer Angel
  22. The Disappearance of Lady Frances CarfaxHoly Peters, as Dr Shlessinger
  23. The Stockbroker’s Clerkthe Beddington brothers, as the Pinners
  24. The Beryl CoronetMary Holder, with Sir George Burnwell
  25. The Bruce-Partington PlansColonel Valentine Walter
  26. The Copper BeechesJephro Rucastle
  27. The Blue CarbuncleJames Ryder
  28. The Resident Patientthe ‘Russian nobleman’ and his ‘son’
  29. The Golden Pince-NezAnna, Professor Coram’s wife
  30. The Dying DetectiveCulverton Smith
  31. The Second StainLady Hilda Trelawney Hope
  32. The Sussex VampireJacky, the elder son
  33. The Man with the Twisted LipNeville St. Clair is Hugh Boone
  34. Wisteria LodgeHenderson, that is Don Murillo
  35. The Six NapoleonsBeppo
  36. The Cardboard BoxJim Browner
  37. The Three StudentsGilchrist
  38. A Study in ScarletJefferson Hope
  39. The Dancing MenAbe Slaney
  40. The Abbey GrangeCaptain Crocker
  41. The Three GablesIsadora Klein
  42. Black PeterPatrick Cairns
The numbers as a table
StoryNamedUnmaskedPoints betweenCulprit
A Case of Identity17%77%60Windibank, as Hosmer Angel
A Study in Scarlet49%49%0Jefferson Hope
Silver Blaze4%91%87John Straker
The Adventure of Black Peter78%83%5Patrick Cairns
The Adventure of Shoscombe Old Place4%88%84Sir Robert Norberton
The Adventure of Wisteria Lodge39%80%41Henderson, that is Don Murillo
The Adventure of the Abbey Grange69%82%13Captain Crocker
The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet23%79%56Mary Holder, with Sir George Burnwell
The Adventure of the Blue Carbuncle31%81%50James Ryder
The Adventure of the Bruce-Partington Plans23%89%66Colonel Valentine Walter
The Adventure of the Cardboard Box40%61%21Jim Browner
The Adventure of the Copper Beeches28%81%53Jephro Rucastle
The Adventure of the Creeping Man0%81%81Professor Presbury himself
The Adventure of the Dancing Men66%79%13Abe Slaney
The Adventure of the Devil’s Foot8%71%63Mortimer Tregennis
The Adventure of the Dying Detective34%88%54Culverton Smith
The Adventure of the Empty House7%74%67Colonel Sebastian Moran
The Adventure of the Golden Pince-Nez34%79%45Anna, Professor Coram’s wife
The Adventure of the Lion's Mane9%84%75Cyanea capillata, a jellyfish
The Adventure of the Norwood Builder9%84%75Jonas Oldacre
The Adventure of the Priory School7%84%77James Wilder, and Reuben Hayes
The Adventure of the Retired Colourman3%77%74Josiah Amberley
The Adventure of the Second Stain35%80%45Lady Hilda Trelawney Hope
The Adventure of the Six Napoleons40%43%3Beppo
The Adventure of the Solitary Cyclist9%67%58Woodley and Williamson
The Adventure of the Speckled Band0%91%91Dr Grimesby Roylott
The Adventure of the Sussex Vampire36%96%60Jacky, the elder son
The Adventure of the Three Gables73%75%2Isadora Klein
The Adventure of the Three Garridebs6%70%64‘Killer’ Evans, as John Garrideb
The Adventure of the Three Students43%78%35Gilchrist
The Boscombe Valley Mystery5%82%77John Turner
The Disappearance of Lady Frances Carfax20%81%61Holy Peters, as Dr Shlessinger
The Hound of the Baskervilles9%74%65Stapleton
The Man with the Twisted Lip39%77%38Neville St. Clair is Hugh Boone
The Naval Treaty11%89%78Joseph Harrison
The Problem of Thor Bridge14%91%77Maria Gibson herself
The Red-Headed League15%72%57John Clay, as Vincent Spaulding
The Reigate Squires12%62%50the Cunninghams, father and son
The Resident Patient31%83%52the ‘Russian nobleman’ and his ‘son’
The Sign of the Four12%36%24Jonathan Small
The Stockbroker’s Clerk22%92%70the Beddington brothers, as the Pinners
The Valley of Fear1%44%43John Douglas himself

How to guess sooner

These are rules of thumb from reading the stories, not part of the measurement:

How this was measured

On the text of each story as published on Project Gutenberg. The first mention is found by searching for every name and disguise of the culprit; the moment of unmasking is the sentence where the culprit is exposed, chosen by hand and checked against the text. A first mention is not yet a reason to suspect someone: in The Valley of Fear the name is in the coded message on the first page. 18 stories are left out because there is no culprit to guess:

Tap a title to read the story, with every place in it on the map.